Forecast for the Week for Arlington, Mansfield and Fort Worth Real Estate and Mortgages

After last week's thin economic calendar, where Stock market action and technical factors had a big impact on Bonds and home loan rates, this coming week brings a much juicier economic report agenda. Go to www.tombrewerjr.com for more information.

Retail Sales for April will be reported on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This widely watched measure of consumer inflation will take special significance, now that the Fed has signaled their current rate cutting cycle may be at an end. On Thursday comes a read on the new construction housing market, with Housing Starts and Building Permits. We will have to see if these reports can keep Bonds above their 50- and 100-Day Moving Averages...as seen in the chart below. If the reports are economically weak or negative, Bond prices and home loan rates should hold their ground, and perhaps even find some improvement.

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. And right now, there's an important story breaking that will be very important to stay tuned in to. Last Friday, oil prices reached a lofty $126 a barrel, and Goldman Sachs is forecasting that black gold could rise even higher, perhaps as high as $150 - $200 a barrel in the next twelve months. If they are right, the inflationary effects of high oil prices could pressure Bond prices to move lower, causing home loan rates to move higher. This will be a story to watch carefully in the days and months ahead.